Home » Betting Guide » Live Cricket Betting

0

Cricket has seen an immense increase in both spectators, teams and sponsors. Given its popularity in India, it is no wonder that the sport garners a lot of viewers and followers. It is beginning to spread all around the world, even beyond the big cricket nations like England and Australia. Since there are now many more and larger tournaments than ever, the betting options have increased as well. Live betting on cricket has started to see exponentially growth spurts the later years.

Live Cricket Betting Strategies

Betting on cricket is a lot like betting on baseball, it is a statistical driven sport. Now the advantage of betting on cricket as opposed to betting on its american counterpart is the fact that there is a lot less competition as of right now, and thus there is easier to find profitable bets to make plays with.

Drawing Strategies From Baseball

It is well known that sabremetrics is used in order to evaluate baseball players and their value. This can be gleaned from the famous hollywood movie ‘Moneyball’ starring Brad Pitt (a good movie btw!). Using statistics, you know that you will get an unbiased measure of the stat you are trying to predict. For me, this is the only way of determining a good bet. I am well aware that people can subjectively predict outcomes, but I am not one of those and will put my faith in my statistical knowledge 🙂

cricket-bowler-celebrating

To get started, we need to have some data to analyze when trying to determine a batting rate for our players. This can be found wherever you would like, someplace that has historical data available. A good start is www.CricInfo.com. Doing this manually can be tedious, but creating a simple program that scrape and sort the information you need can be done. You probably can google this or know someone who has this knowledge.

Now we go down into the nitty-gritty parts of why and how we use our model. The model I have taken a look at is the predictior called the consistency-adjusted average (CAA). This is an idea proposed by Borooah and Mangan (2010) to re-rank batsmen. Using the average has a tendency to bloat some results by batsmen that have a couple of very high scores. This can come from different reasons, but again, taking an average when a couple of your games includes too high scores for your true average.

The formula that is used is very simple, and it uses something called the Gini coefficient:
gini-coefficient

This needs a lot of data to be calculated and a lot of numbers needs to be added together, so using atleast excel for this work is essential. Making it automated using macros should also be done.

Next you can actually calculate the CAA:
consistency-adjusted-average

This proves to be a better measure of a batsmen consistent performance, and will better show who will add team value and who is overpriced.

Using this number to recalculate the winning probabilites that is assigned to teams can prove to offer some great betting opportunities. Since sabremetrics for cricket is a new venture and not many has taken advantage of this facet yet, there is plenty of bets to find. Using this in live betting can prove to offer even more expected value, but here finding the batting impact (BI) will have an easier chance of offer this.

This has simply been an introduction into cricket sabremetrics, for more information and further possible analysis of this, check out this article that goes more into depth on how to analyze cricket games: Application of Sabremetrics to Cricket.

Leave a Reply

You must be Logged in to post comment.